The 2025 PJM capacity auction cleared at $269 per MW-day — the highest in a decade. Commercial bills feel the impact starting Q3 2025 retail rate updates. Bill impact varies by load profile: high-load-factor commercial customers see 4 to 8 percent total bill increase; low-load-factor customers see 8 to 14 percent. The 90-day lock window before Q3 captures pre-auction supplier pricing.
Bill impact by commercial load profile
High-load-factor commercial customers (data centers, hospitals, 24/7 manufacturing) see roughly 4 to 8 percent total bill increase. Capacity is allocated by coincident peak demand, which is similar to average.
Low-load-factor commercial customers (retail, schools, offices) see 8 to 14 percent because the capacity allocation is based on peak demand, which is much higher than their average draw.
The 90-day lock window before Q3
Suppliers price commercial offers based on their own capacity hedging. Before Q3 retail updates, suppliers are pricing against pre-auction forward curves and can lock customers at lower capacity components.
After Q3, suppliers reprice to reflect the cleared capacity result. The 90-day window before Q3 captures the pre-update pricing for 24-month forward contracts.
Lock the rate before the next reset.
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