The short answer
12-mo is rarely worth it — re-shop costs eat the savings.
Term length is the single biggest lever after the headline rate. The trade-offs are straightforward: shorter terms re-shop more often (better if rates fall, worse if they rise); longer terms lock the curve (better in inflationary environments, worse if you need flexibility). This guide compares 12, 24, 36, and 48-month locks across the three things that actually matter — average reduction, year-one savings, and total term savings on a representative bill.
Why 12-month is rarely the right call
A 12-month lock is the most-clicked option in apples-to-apples portals because the headline rate is usually the lowest. But the math doesn't hold up: re-shop costs and renewal-trap risk eat the savings, and the year-two re-price is exposed to wholesale market movement.
In an inflationary environment (the US has been at 4–7%/yr in deregulated regions since 2022), a 12-month lock that rolls into a higher 12-month at year two ends up costing more than a single 24-month lock at the lower year-one rate.
The exception is when wholesale curves are inverted (later months cheaper than earlier). In those rare windows, 12-month is the winner because year two is expected to clear cheaper. They are rare.
Why 24-month is the most common winner
A 24-month lock captures the full Aug–Oct pricing window, the full winter spike absorption, and a second summer cycle without re-shop friction. On a $4,800/mo commercial bill, the 24-month locks to ~$15,440 in cumulative estimated savings against the default rate trajectory.
For most residential and SMB accounts the 24-month is the default recommendation. The savings curve flattens past 24 months unless the wholesale curve is inverted.
Infographic
Cumulative savings on a 24-month lock at $4,800/mo
When 36 and 48-month locks make sense
A 36 or 48-month lock makes sense when (a) the wholesale curve is inverted or flat, (b) the buyer has predictable load over the term, and (c) the supplier offers a no-exit-fee clause for major-business-change events.
For Class-A office portfolios and stable-revenue commercial accounts, 36-month locks are common. For 48-month, the rule is the same with an even stronger requirement on load predictability.
Industrial accounts with material capital expansion plans should not lock past 24 months — the early-termination fee for a load-change event can wipe out the savings.
Comparison table
Term-by-term outcomes on a $4,800/mo commercial bill
| Lock term | Avg reduction | Year-1 savings (est.) | Term savings (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 11.8% | $6,790 | $6,790 |
| 24 months | 13.4% | $7,720 | $15,440 |
| 36 months | 14.2% | $8,180 | $24,540 |
| 48 months | 14.6% | $8,410 | $33,640 |
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Sources
About the author
Harry ParkerEnergy Consultant, Seenra Inc
Energy Consultant at Seenra Inc. Harry advises US commercial buyers and households on supplier procurement, multi-site aggregation, and the operator-level math behind locked-rate contracts. Eight years on the buy side across PJM and ERCOT zones — he has run the load profile, the reverse auction, and the renewal calendar for portfolios from 50 kW restaurants to 18 MW manufacturing campuses.