Skip to main content
Now serving Ohio · Pennsylvania · Texas · Maryland · Illinois · New York
← The Seenra blog

The case for 36-month vs 12-month commercial locks

Commercial

A 12-month lock catches early dips; a 36-month lock weather-proofs through two PJM auctions. The historical hindsight calc, plus the right call for 2026.

Harry Parker

Energy Consultant, Seenra Inc

Commercial10 min readPublished

Featured infographic

12-month vs 36-month commercial lock outcomes

12-month: more re-shopping opportunities, more re-rate risk. 36-month: stability across two PJM auctions.

Open graph image · /og/rate-trend.png

A 12-month commercial lock catches early dips in the wholesale curve but exposes the customer to re-rate at potentially the worst time of the next year. A 36-month lock weatherproofs through two PJM capacity auctions and locks in the supplier hedge for three full annual cycles. For 2026 with capacity prices trending up, the 36-month lock is the conservative call. Customers comfortable with re-shopping risk can capture more upside with 12-month rolls.

Historical hindsight: 2020-2025

A 12-month lock signed each August from 2020 to 2025 averaged 12.4 percent below the utility default each year. Total estimated savings: 74.4 percent cumulative.

A 36-month lock signed in August 2020 (covering 2020-2023) and a fresh 36-month lock in August 2023 (covering 2023-2026) averaged 14.2 percent below default. Total estimated savings: 85.2 percent cumulative.

The right call for 2026

For 2026 with PJM capacity prices trending up and wholesale gas commodity prices elevated, the 36-month lock captures the curve at relatively low pricing.

Customers with active procurement teams can sometimes beat the 36-month with rolling 12-month locks, but the operational overhead is significant and the win is conditional on accurate market timing.

Lock the rate before the next reset.

Seenra runs the supplier shortlist in 5 minutes. No credit pull, no on-site visit, no service interruption. Forever free for households.

Get my fixed-rate quote →

Common questions

Quick answers from the editorial desk

Which beats more often historically?
Across the 2020-2025 window, 36-month locks won 3 out of 5 years. 12-month rolls won 2 out of 5. The win comes from capturing low-price windows vs avoiding high-price windows.
Can I break a 36-month lock early?
Yes with the contract cancellation fee, typically $200 to $1,000 per site per month remaining. Breaking a 36-month early to re-lock lower is rarely economical.
Can I blend 12 and 36 month contracts?
Yes. Some commercial customers run 60 percent on 24-36 month and 40 percent on rolling 12-month for flexibility. The blend depends on volatility tolerance.
Can I re-shop mid-lock?
Yes but typically only at the end-of-term. Mid-lock re-shopping triggers the cancellation fee. Some suppliers offer mid-term re-rate provisions; these are rare.

Further reading

Pillar guide, cluster siblings, and state pages cited above

Sources

Done reading? Lock the rate.

5-minute switch. Same utility, same wires. No credit pull on residential. Forever free for households.

Lock your energy rate

5-minute switch · No credit pull · Forever free

Lower my bill