A 12-month commercial lock catches early dips in the wholesale curve but exposes the customer to re-rate at potentially the worst time of the next year. A 36-month lock weatherproofs through two PJM capacity auctions and locks in the supplier hedge for three full annual cycles. For 2026 with capacity prices trending up, the 36-month lock is the conservative call. Customers comfortable with re-shopping risk can capture more upside with 12-month rolls.
Historical hindsight: 2020-2025
A 12-month lock signed each August from 2020 to 2025 averaged 12.4 percent below the utility default each year. Total estimated savings: 74.4 percent cumulative.
A 36-month lock signed in August 2020 (covering 2020-2023) and a fresh 36-month lock in August 2023 (covering 2023-2026) averaged 14.2 percent below default. Total estimated savings: 85.2 percent cumulative.
The right call for 2026
For 2026 with PJM capacity prices trending up and wholesale gas commodity prices elevated, the 36-month lock captures the curve at relatively low pricing.
Customers with active procurement teams can sometimes beat the 36-month with rolling 12-month locks, but the operational overhead is significant and the win is conditional on accurate market timing.
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Quick answers from the editorial desk
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Further reading