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The Henry Hub price — what it means for your winter bill

Markets

Henry Hub is the US benchmark price for natural gas. When it hits $5 per MMBtu, retail bills follow within 60 days. The 5-year chart and forecast.

Harry Parker

Energy Consultant, Seenra Inc

Markets8 min readPublished

Featured infographic

Henry Hub spot price 5-year history

Annual range from $2.00 to $14.40 per MMBtu. Winter spikes in 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2025. The 2026 winter futures curve sits at $4.20 to $5.80.

Open graph image · /og/rate-trend.png

Henry Hub in Louisiana is the US benchmark price for natural gas. Every state retail gas tariff and almost every commercial gas contract references it directly or indirectly. When Henry Hub spot price exceeds $5 per MMBtu, US retail residential gas bills typically rise 8 to 18 percent within 60 days. The 2026 winter futures curve prices Henry Hub at $4.20 to $5.80 per MMBtu through January. Locking gas supply before the winter ramp captures the pre-rise window.

What Henry Hub actually is

Henry Hub is a physical pipeline interconnection point in Erath, Louisiana where 16 pipelines meet. NYMEX natural gas futures settle to the Henry Hub spot price.

Most US retail gas tariffs include a commodity component that tracks Henry Hub. When Henry Hub moves up, the wholesale cost component of retail gas tariffs moves up after a 30-to-60-day lag.

How Henry Hub flows into your bill

Step 1: Henry Hub spot price moves. Step 2: gas utilities adjust their wholesale procurement cost in the next quarterly tariff filing. Step 3: the new tariff takes effect and customers see the new commodity rate on their next bill.

Total lag from Henry Hub move to retail bill change: typically 30 to 60 days. Locked supplier rates insulate this entire cycle for the contract term.

The 2026 winter outlook

The 2026 winter futures curve prices Henry Hub at $4.20 to $5.80 per MMBtu through January 2027. That is above the long-run average ($3.20 over 2015 to 2023) but below the 2022 peak ($8.10 in August 2022).

If actual storage withdrawals exceed the forecast (cold winter), Henry Hub could spike above $7 in January-February. Locked customers are insulated; variable customers absorb the spike.

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Common questions

Quick answers from the editorial desk

Who sets the Henry Hub price?
The market. Henry Hub spot price is the result of buyer-seller bidding at the physical Erath, Louisiana hub. NYMEX gas futures settle to the spot price. No single entity sets it.
How does Henry Hub affect my residential gas bill?
The commodity component of your gas tariff tracks Henry Hub with a 30-to-60-day lag. When Henry Hub spot exceeds $5 per MMBtu, residential gas bills typically rise 8 to 18 percent within 60 days.
Is there going to be a cold winter in 2026-27?
NOAA Climate Prediction Center publishes a winter outlook each October. The 2026-27 outlook will be released in October 2026. Until then, the 2026 winter futures curve prices in moderate winter conditions; actual cold could push prices higher.
Can I hedge against Henry Hub price moves?
Yes via a locked supplier contract. The supplier hedges the contract at signing in the futures market. You pay the locked rate; the supplier absorbs the spread. This is the cleanest hedge available to households.

Further reading

Pillar guide, cluster siblings, and state pages cited above

Sources

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