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PJM capacity auction explained for residential customers

Policy

PJM auctions ahead-of-time generation capacity. The $269/MW-day clear hits residential bills three months later. The full explainer in plain English.

Harry Parker

Energy Consultant, Seenra Inc

Policy10 min readPublished

Featured infographic

PJM BRA capacity auction-to-bill timeline

Auction May/June → cleared price published → state PUC tariff update → 3-6 month lag to residential bill.

Open graph image · /og/capacity-stack.png

PJM Interconnection runs an annual Base Residual Auction (BRA) in May/June to procure generation capacity for the delivery year starting 18 months later. The clearing price ($269 per MW-day for 2025-26) is the unified procurement cost across all PJM-zone generators with capacity to sell. The capacity charge flows into residential bills with a 90-day to 6-month lag depending on state. Residential customers cannot opt out.

How the BRA works

PJM aggregates demand forecast across all zones. Generators bid in their capacity at desired price. PJM clears the auction at the price where supply meets demand.

Cleared price applies uniformly across all PJM-zone generators with cleared capacity. The cleared price flows into wholesale market participants' contracts and ultimately into retail tariffs.

How clearing flows to residential bills

Each state PUC reviews the cleared price as part of the annual utility tariff filing. The capacity component of the residential delivery tariff adjusts based on the auction.

Typical lag: 90 days to 6 months from auction clearing to retail bill change. PA fastest at ~90 days; some states take 6+ months.

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Common questions

Quick answers from the editorial desk

Who participates in the auction?
PJM-zone generators (gas, coal, nuclear, renewables, demand response, battery storage). Demand bids from utilities and large industrial users. Cleared price applies uniformly.
Why did 2025 prices clear so high?
Retiring coal generation, slow renewable buildout, and growing data center load. Demand grew while supply tightened. 2025-26 cleared at $269/MW-day, highest in a decade.
Can residential customers opt out?
No. The capacity charge is regulated and identical across all residential customers in the zone. Cannot be shopped via supplier choice.
Forecast for the next auction?
PJM 2026-27 auction (clearing summer 2026) forecast to clear $200 to $290 per MW-day, similar to 2025. Capacity tightening continues.

Further reading

Pillar guide, cluster siblings, and state pages cited above

Sources

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