NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlook for summer 2026 leans hotter than average across the southern and southwestern US. Cooling-degree-day projections suggest 8 to 14 percent more CDD than the long-run average. Typical residential summer bills could run 6 to 12 percent above 2025. States most exposed: Texas, Arizona, Nevada, California Central Valley, Florida, Louisiana. Locked-rate households are protected; variable-rate customers absorb the spike.
Cooling-degree-day projections
NOAA CPC summer outlook projects CDD 8 to 14 percent above the 1991-2020 normal in southern and southwestern states.
States most exposed: TX, AZ, NV, CA Central Valley, FL, LA. Northeast and Midwest see normal to slightly-above-normal CDD.
Regional bill estimates
South + Southwest: residential cooling bills 6 to 12 percent above 2025. Locked-rate customers protected; variable-rate customers absorb the spike.
Midwest + Northeast: residential cooling bills 0 to 4 percent above 2025. Minimal impact from the forecast hotter summer.
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TOU during hot summer?
Heat pump in summer?
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