EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook for winter 2026-27 projects gas heating costs up 8 percent, electric heating up 4 percent, and heating oil up 12 percent vs 2025-26. Cold-weather forecasts from NOAA add risk above the EIA baseline. A 10 percent colder-than-normal winter could push heating bills up another 10 to 18 percent. Locking the supply rate in August through October captures the pre-winter forward curve.
By-fuel cost projections
Natural gas heating: +8 percent. Driven by elevated Henry Hub, LNG export demand, and storage drawdown. Total winter gas bill: $940 to $1,260 for typical home.
Electric heating: +4 percent. Driven by PJM capacity auction passthrough and continued coal retirements. Total winter electric bill: $1,200 to $1,800 for all-electric home.
Heating oil: +12 percent. Driven by global crude prices and reduced US refining margins. Total winter oil bill: $1,800 to $2,800 for typical oil-heated home.
State-by-state heating cost map
Cold-climate northeast (ME, NH, VT, NY, MA) sees the highest absolute heating bills due to high HDD and high rates.
Mid-Atlantic and Midwest (PA, OH, IL, MI) see moderate heating bills with the largest relative locked-rate savings opportunity.
Sun Belt (TX, FL, AZ) sees minimal heating bills but high cooling bills the rest of the year.
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