AEP Ohio price-to-compare rose from 6.1 cents per kWh in 2021 to 12.4 cents per kWh in 2026 — a 103 percent increase over 5 years. The driver mix includes PJM capacity auction clears (highest in a decade), natural gas commodity prices (volatile across 2021 to 2025), coal generation retirements, and regulated transmission cost recovery. Locking a supplier rate at any point in the 5-year window beat the trajectory of staying on the PTC.
The 5-year rate trajectory
2021: 6.1 cents per kWh. 2022: 7.4 cents (post-pandemic gas spike + PJM 2022 capacity auction). 2023: 9.2 (cold winter draw + coal retirements). 2024: 11.1 (continued capacity tightening). 2025: 12.0 (PJM auction high). 2026: 12.4 (full PJM auction passthrough).
The cumulative 103 percent increase outpaced the residential CPI energy subindex by roughly 35 percentage points over the same period. AEP Ohio customers on PTC paid the full trajectory; customers who locked at any point in the window beat it.
What drove the rate trajectory
PJM capacity auction clears: 2025 clear at $269 per MW-day was the highest in a decade. The clear flows into Ohio retail tariffs with a 12-to-18-month lag. Natural gas commodity: gas-fired generation sets the marginal price for power in PJM most hours. Gas volatility 2021-2025 translated directly to power prices.
Coal retirements: Ohio retired roughly 4,800 MW of coal generation between 2021 and 2026. The replacement (gas + renewables) costs more per MWh delivered. Transmission cost recovery: PJM transmission tariffs increased 18 percent over the same window driven by grid resilience investments.
How locked rates beat the PTC trajectory
A supplier rate locked in August 2021 at 5.8 cents per kWh saved 47 percent over the 24-month contract vs PTC. A supplier rate locked in August 2023 at 8.9 cents saved 28 percent over the 24-month contract.
Across every year in the 5-year window, locking beat staying on PTC. The estimated savings vs PTC averaged 14 percent across all lock years. Locked customers also avoided the quarterly volatility of the PTC.
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