The PJM 2025 capacity auction cleared at $269 per MW-day, the highest in a decade. The clear flowed into Pennsylvania delivery-side bills starting June 2025. Average Pennsylvania residential bill rose $8 to $14 per month from the capacity component alone over the winter 2025-26 heating season. The 2026 capacity auction is expected to clear similar levels. Locking the supply portion protects against further shifts but does not offset the regulated capacity tag.
2025 auction clear and PA rate impact
The PJM 2025 Base Residual Auction cleared at $269 per MW-day across the eastern MAAC zone (PECO + PPL territories) and similar but slightly different in the western PJM-RTO zone (Duquesne).
The clear flowed into PA delivery-side bills starting June 2025. The capacity component of the typical PA residential bill rose by $8 to $14 a month, depending on the customer load profile and capacity allocation.
Who feels the capacity increase
Every PA residential and commercial customer pays the capacity charge. Locked-rate supplier customers feel it on the delivery line of their bill. Default-service customers feel it on both the delivery line and the supply line (if their utility PTC bundles capacity).
The capacity charge is regulated. It cannot be shopped or avoided through supplier choice. The only lever is reducing your peak demand, which works only for customers on demand-based tariffs.
2026 outlook and lock strategy
The 2026 PJM auction (clearing May/June 2026) is expected to clear similar levels to 2025. Capacity tightening continues as coal retires and data center demand grows. Forecasts in the $250 to $300 per MW-day range.
Locking the supply portion of your contract protects against supply-side moves but does not offset the regulated capacity tag. The lock is best understood as a partial hedge: largest hedge available to non-utility customers, but never a complete hedge.
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