Skip to main content
Now serving Ohio · Pennsylvania · Texas · Maryland · Illinois · New York
← The Seenra blog

The PA capacity charge spike: why winter 2025-26 was costly

State spotlight

PJM 2025 capacity clear at $269 per MW-day hit Pennsylvania bills hard in winter 2025-26. The component breakdown and what the 2026 auction will do next.

Featured infographic

PA capacity charge component, before and after the 2025 auction clear

$8 to $14 monthly increase across PECO, PPL, Duquesne, Met-Ed, Penelec. Identical for all suppliers because capacity is regulated.

Open graph image · /og/capacity-stack.png

The PJM 2025 capacity auction cleared at $269 per MW-day, the highest in a decade. The clear flowed into Pennsylvania delivery-side bills starting June 2025. Average Pennsylvania residential bill rose $8 to $14 per month from the capacity component alone over the winter 2025-26 heating season. The 2026 capacity auction is expected to clear similar levels. Locking the supply portion protects against further shifts but does not offset the regulated capacity tag.

2025 auction clear and PA rate impact

The PJM 2025 Base Residual Auction cleared at $269 per MW-day across the eastern MAAC zone (PECO + PPL territories) and similar but slightly different in the western PJM-RTO zone (Duquesne).

The clear flowed into PA delivery-side bills starting June 2025. The capacity component of the typical PA residential bill rose by $8 to $14 a month, depending on the customer load profile and capacity allocation.

Who feels the capacity increase

Every PA residential and commercial customer pays the capacity charge. Locked-rate supplier customers feel it on the delivery line of their bill. Default-service customers feel it on both the delivery line and the supply line (if their utility PTC bundles capacity).

The capacity charge is regulated. It cannot be shopped or avoided through supplier choice. The only lever is reducing your peak demand, which works only for customers on demand-based tariffs.

2026 outlook and lock strategy

The 2026 PJM auction (clearing May/June 2026) is expected to clear similar levels to 2025. Capacity tightening continues as coal retires and data center demand grows. Forecasts in the $250 to $300 per MW-day range.

Locking the supply portion of your contract protects against supply-side moves but does not offset the regulated capacity tag. The lock is best understood as a partial hedge: largest hedge available to non-utility customers, but never a complete hedge.

Lock the rate before the next reset.

Seenra runs the supplier shortlist in 5 minutes. No credit pull, no on-site visit, no service interruption. Forever free for households.

Get my fixed-rate quote →

Common questions

Quick answers from the editorial desk

When does the next capacity auction hit my PA bill?
The 2026 auction clears May/June 2026 and flows into PA bills starting June 2027. The 2025 auction clear ($269 per MW-day) is currently in PA bills through May 2026.
Can I lock to escape the capacity charge?
No. Capacity is a delivery-side charge set by the regulated utility tariff. Supplier locks stabilise the supply portion only. The capacity charge flows through to your bill regardless of who supplies your kWh.
Is the capacity charge the same for residential and commercial?
No. Commercial customers on demand-based tariffs pay capacity per kW of allocated demand, which can be higher per-kWh than residential allocation. Residential customers pay a flat per-kWh capacity charge embedded in the delivery line.
What is the future outlook for PJM capacity prices?
Capacity prices are expected to remain elevated through 2027 driven by continued coal retirement, slow new generation buildout, and growing data center demand. The 2026 and 2027 auctions are forecast in the $250 to $320 per MW-day range.

Further reading

Pillar guide, cluster siblings, and state pages cited above

Sources

Done reading? Lock the rate.

5-minute switch. Same utility, same wires. No credit pull on residential. Forever free for households.

Lock your energy rate

5-minute switch · No credit pull · Forever free

Lower my bill